# 2494
The idea of promoting `business as usual' in the UK during a pandemic has come up before.
Unlike a storm, which might disrupt a region for a day or two, a pandemic wave is likely to linger for many weeks, and several waves might visit over the course of a year or two. Like it or not, for the good of society, many people will need to find ways to work through a pandemic.
Otherwise food production and distribution will halt. Water and electricity will stop flowing. Communications (phone, Internet, TV, radio) would cease. Health care options will evaporate. And police and fire personnel will no longer respond.
The chain of support personnel needed to make sure these, and other equally vital services, continue is long and not always obvious.
Imagine what happens if the payroll clerk fails to work, or the computer technician that keeps the company's computer system up and running decides to stay home for 3 months?
Banks, credit card companies, insurance companies, refinery workers, delivery services, importers and exporters, and dozens of other `background' businesses will need to function in order to support essential services.
Far more people are `essential' to the successful functioning of our society than realize it.
The list below comes from an article that appeared in The TimesOnline after the 2007 Winter Willow exercise, outlining the key points of the UK's pandemic plan.
Crisis targets
—The aim is to keep the nation open for business
—International flights will not be banned, although airline companies must prevent the sick from travelling
—There are to be no road blocks outside cities
—Ministers do not want armed troops on the streets or afflicted communities treated like 17th century plague villages
—Police will guard antiviral drug supplies and vaccines
—Employers are to stagger working hours so that a reduced public transport system will be able to cope
—Healthy people are expected to go to work. An absenteeism rate of 15-30 per cent is expected in each business including MPs and peers in Parliament, which itself will not close
Today we get a long article in the UK's Northern Echo presenting a history of the 1918 Spanish flu, along with a synopsis of the UK government's pandemic plans.
The last few paragraphs give us some clue as to the seriousness that the UK government gives the pandemic threat, and their proposed reactions.
Don’t panic!
11:26am Wednesday 26th November 2008
By Owen Amos »
<excerpt>
In our globalised world, what chance would we have of containing it? If a few sub-prime mortgages shed trillions off the world’s economy, what chance would we have if 100 million people – that’s people who actually make things – died in a year? If a quarter of Great Britain fell ill, as happened in 1918, 15 million people would need help.
That’s why we have a National Director of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (Professor Lindsey Davies) a Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, a National Framework for Responding to an Influenza Pandemic. That’s why, on November 13, every strategic health authority in England was given more than £1m for “Pandemic Influenza Preparedness”, on top of £35m the UK has thrown in the global pot. In short: we’re scared.
IN August, the Government’s National Risk Register put flu pandemic at number one: ahead of coastal flooding, attacks on crowded places and attacks on transport. The report said: “Experts agree there is a high probability of another influenza pandemic occurring, but it is impossible to forecast its exact timing or precise nature of its impact.”
Professor Davies hasn’t just been keeping her fingers crossed, though. We have 14 million doses of Tamiflu, the anti-flu drug and “sleeping contracts” for fast-track manufacture of a further 120 million. And, you’ll be glad to hear, we have a plan.
The World Health Organisation – which says “the world is now closer to another influenza pandemic than at any time since 1968” – has an alert system. Now, we’re on Level Three – “No or very limited human to human transmission”.
If we get to Level Four – “Evidence of increased human to human transmission” – the Government will launch an advertising campaign, telling people to stock up on food, water, and medicine.
After the first British case, the Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, will address the nation by television. How dramatic. The message will, apparently, be “business as usual” – don’t stay at home unnecessarily. If we panic, we’re done for.
Whether governments can convince citizens to work `as usual' during a pandemic is unknown. It is not likely to be an easy `sell'.
Much will depend upon the severity of a pandemic (CFR or Case Fatality Ratio), the public's perception of the risk (based, largely I should think, on media reporting), and on the success of community and business mitigation efforts.
Businesses that have prepared in advance will likely have better luck enticing their employees to work.
That means finding ways of social distancing or creating barriers between workers and the public, providing PPEs and antivirals (where appropriate) to high risk employees, and finding ways to help protect employee's families.
In a severe (1918 or worse) pandemic, `business as usual' isn't likely to occur. People won't be going out to movies, or restaurants, or the shopping mall as they do in normal times.
`Non-essential' retail and service establishments will probably see a dramatic drop in business. People probably won't be spending money on cars, or new refrigerators, or big screen TVs.
No doubt, these actions will be felt throughout the economy. The economic hit is likely to be substantial.
A pandemic is an open-ended crisis, and it could go on for two years, or longer. We won't know it's over until we've gone 6 or 12 months without another wave. And we won't know how bad the pandemic really was until the last wave has ended.
The high fatality rate of 1918's second and third waves taught us that.
As formidable as these problems are, it's not as if we are going to have a choice in the matter.
Dealing with them will not be optional.
`Business as usual' is almost certainly an unachievable goal in a severe pandemic. I'm sure, despite their announced policy, the UK government is quite aware of that.
But they are right in that we do need to find ways to come as close as possible.
If we allow the underpinnings of society to fail, a pandemic virus will become the least of our problems.
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