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Today Dr Keiji Fukuda, Head of WHO's Global Influenza Programme, gave a virtual teleconference with journalists from around the world on the expectations for the upcoming flu season in the Northern Hemisphere.
This year's flu vaccine, after disappointing effectiveness last year, is a complete reworking of the formula; with three new strains represented in this trivalent vaccine.
Flu vaccine formulas must be decided on six months before the next flu season, and a certain amount of educated guesswork goes into deciding which three flu strains are likely to be the most dominate. Most years, these formulations are reasonably on target.
Last year, they were not. The flu vaccine was reportedly only about 45% effective, and that may be a generous assessment.
In the summer of 2007 two new strains of Influenza A appeared, the H1N1 Brisbane strain, and the H3N2 Brisbane strain. Neither were covered by last year's vaccine.
It is hoped that this year's formulation will be a better match for the flu viruses circulating this season. Since the recently determined Southern Hemisphere's formulation for next year will be the same as this fall's formula for the Northern Hemisphere, there is a higher level of confidence in this year's shot.
This year the flu shot will contain:
H1N1 A/Brisbane/59/2007
H3N2 A/Brisbane/10/2007
B Florida/4/2006
Today's telephone conference was basically a `backgrounder' for journalists, stressing the importance of getting the flu vaccine early in the fall.
Dr. Fukuda stressed that getting the flu vaccine not only protects the recipient, but those around them. He made particular mention of the need for HCW (Health Care Workers) to get the flu vaccine.
Seasonal influenza hits hardest among the elderly, the very young, and those will chronic medical conditions such as COPD, heart or kidney disease, or Diabetes. Pregnant women are also more likely to suffer disproportionately with influenza.
It is too early, according to Dr. Fukuda, to determine how severe this year's flu season will be. Press reports predicting an unusually severe flu season this year are not based on current science.
Dr. Fukuda, when asked about the growing resistance of the H1N1 virus to Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) stated that it doesn't appear to be related to usage of the antiviral, and that its use shouldn't be withheld in cases where it is needed.
Vaccination, he reminds us, remains the best protection against the flu, however.
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