# 2407
When you read as many news stories each day as I do, you soon realize how dangerous it is to depend on only one news source for your information.
Here is a prime example.
Today, Dr. David Nabarro, the UN's System Influenza Coordinator (UNSIC), gave a press conference in advance of this weekend's bird flu conference in Egypt.
This first report, by Deutsche Presse-Agentur (German Press Agency) would lead the reader to believe that the world is prepared for a pandemic because . . . well . . it says so in the opening paragraph:
The world is well prepared to beat back any major influenza pandemic with 148 countries having made contingency plans to deal with the disease, the United Nations and the World Bank said Tuesday
A pretty definitive statement. And credited to the UN and the World Bank no less.
I confess, I'm not entirely sure what the author means by saying the world is well prepared to `beat back any pandemic' .
It conjures up an image of containment, or even eradication, of a pandemic virus. Neither of which are considered likely.
It sure sounds good, though. Doesn't it?
Here is the dpa report:
UN: World is well prepared to fight large scale avian flu outbreak
Posted : Tue, 21 Oct 2008 19:30:35 GMT
Author : DPA
New York - The world is well prepared to beat back any major influenza pandemic with 148 countries having made contingency plans to deal with the disease, the United Nations and the World Bank said Tuesday.
"Considering that pandemic preparedness was largely unaddressed by the world's nations three years ago, the widespread awareness and action seen today is a major achievement," said David Nabarro, the UN system influenza coordinator.
"But more needs to be done to ensure that we are ready for this kind of major global crisis," Nabarro said at UN headquarters while launching a joint report with the World Bank.
<snip>
The UN said no countries have reported major outbreaks of the H5N1 avian influenza virus in their poultry in the first nine months of 2008. There were four infection cases last year. The influenza virus jumped from animals to humans.
I'm not sure how the reporter came up with this closing gem. That no country has reported a major outbreak of H5N1 in their poultry in the first nine months of 2008.
This is going to come as terrible shock to South Korea, Bangladesh, and India - who apparently culled millions of birds for nothing this past spring.
Actually, the UN report stated that:
From January –September 2008, no countries were newly infected (4 countries were newly infected in the first six months of 2007) and only 20 countries have experienced outbreaks so far (25 countries reported outbreaks in 2007).
Which is a far cry from what the reporter wrote.
Moving on . . .
Next on our roundup of the coverage of the Nabarro conference we go to the Associated Press.
And sad to say, their assessment isn't quite as sanguine.
UN reports broad, but untested bird flu planning
UNITED NATIONS: The good news is most countries have plans to deal with a global bird flu pandemic. The bad news is most of those plans are untested and could fail, U.N. officials said Tuesday.
Almost all of the 148 countries that provided data on the spread of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus ahead of an international conference this week in Egypt reported they had contingency plans.
Dr. David Nabarro, the U.N. influenza coordinator, called it a major achievement to gain such widespread awareness since "preparedness for a global emergency of this scope was an issue largely unaddressed about three years ago."
Hmmm. It's almost never a good sign when a news article starts out with a good news-bad news joke.
Lots of plans, but very little testing. The plans, we are told, `could fail'.
Not exactly brimming with optimism, although Dr. Nabarro did call the progress made over the past 3 years `a major achievement'.
The advantage of grading on the curve.
So we have one very optimistic assessment, and one . . . not so much.
For the tie breaker, we turn to Reuters News.
UN: Birdflu pushed back, pandemic threat remains
Tue 21 Oct 2008, 18:53 GMT
By Patrick Worsnip
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 21 (Reuters) - International efforts have pushed back the spread of bird flu this year but the risk of a global influenza pandemic killing millions is as great as ever, the United Nations and World Bank reported on Tuesday.
Most countries now have plans to combat a pandemic, but many of the plans are defective, said the report, issued before a bird flu conference due to be attended by ministers from some 60 countries in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, from Friday to Sunday.
The report, fourth in a series since a bird flu scare swept the globe three years ago, followed a new World Bank estimate that a severe flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion and result in a nearly 5 percent drop in world gross domestic product.
So, according to Reuters, many of the plans `are defective'. That sounds worse than the AP, which simply said they were untested.
Since I wasn't present at today's presser, the next best thing is to go to the actual UN report:
In the executive summary, on page 8, it states :
Many countries have made substantial progress for their national pandemic preparedness; in some regions sophisticated advancements continue to be made in deepening and developing preparations.
However, many of the plans have not yet been fully endorsed or made operational – in particular at the local level and preparations in sectors beyond health need to be strengthened.
Whilst the threat remains, it can be concluded that the world is significantly better prepared to respond to HPAI and to mitigate the impacts of the next influenza pandemic.
Need remains for continued advocacy, support and monitoring of preparations to ensure the capacity to respond to the threat of HPAI (and in many cases other zoonosis) is strengthened and made sustainable.
In addition, it is essential to review, adapt and update pandemic preparations which will not only be of benefit in the event of pandemic but for the general resilience of a country against other emergencies.
The bottom line is, we've come a long way in 3 years. In 2005, few countries even had pandemic influenza on their radar screen.
Today, most countries are at least working towards developing plans, and real progress has been made in surveillance and containment of the H5N1 virus in many countries.
But is the world `well prepared to beat back any major influenza pandemic'?
Even if I knew what the heck that meant, I doubt I would believe it.
Related Post:
Widget by [ Iptek-4u ]