# 2020
The pandemic preparedness movement has sparked a number of grassroots organizations working to better prepare our communities for a possible pandemic. While many have been mentioned in this blog, two are very near and dear to my heart; the Readymoms and Get Pandemic Ready.
I've highlighted the Readymom's many times, including here, here and here, and will do so again in the near future.
Today I'll highlight Get Pandemic Ready, a website hosted by Nez Perce County, Idaho that provides practical preparedness solutions for individuals and families.
One of the big debates over preparedness is over how much food, water, medicine and essential supplies would be prudent for each family stockpile?
The US federal government recommends 2 weeks (although they wouldn't object if you stored more), many state and local health departments advocate 2 or 3 months, and late last year the Australian Food Lifeboat plan recommended 90 days.
In an attempt to clarify why Get Pandemic Ready advocates 90 days of supplies, the authors have put together this guide.
Due to the length, I'm splitting it into two parts.
In November 2007, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) launched its “Take the Lead” campaign, asking local leaders to help their communities prepare for pandemic flu.
“Preparing for a pandemic influenza outbreak involves everybody. The threat of pandemic influenza is real, and America needs leadership from respected community members to prepare our towns and cities, reduce the impact of pandemic flu on individuals and families, and reduce or even prevent serious damage to the economy.”
HHS recommends leaders encourage their communities to prepare by storing 2 weeks of food, medication, water and other essential supplies. This is a good start. But once people complete it, they need to continue towards the goal of at least a 3 month supply.
Obtaining three months supplies is doable. See "Small Spaces, Small Budgets" in the ‘downloads’ section of the homepage for affordable ideas. Start with two weeks. Once you've reached this goal, go for four weeks, then eight, and then twelve.
Why We Recommend Three MonthsI. Households May Be Sick Longer Than 2 Weeks
II. Three Months May Be The Length of a Pandemic Wave
III. The Critical Infrastructure is at Risk During a Pandemic
IV. Three Months of Supplies Makes Economic Sense
V. Three Months of Supplies Makes Sense for Communities
VI. Respected Institutions Recommend Three Months of Home Stockpiling
VII. Summary
I. Households May be Sick Longer than 2 Weeks
An infectious disease takes time to spread through a family or household. Many families see this happen with the common cold: the virus may take up to 6 weeks to go through the entire family, passing from person to person.
In a severe pandemic, according to the CDC, all family members in the household will be asked to stay at home and avoid going to work or the store if a family member is sick, for at least 7 days after the last person started showing symptoms. If a family is large, everyone may be staying home for quite some time until it is clear that no one could still be contagious. A long absence from work may result in a loss of income.“Members of households with ill individuals may be recommended to stay home for an incubation period, 7 days (voluntary quarantine) following the time of symptom onset in the household member. If other family members become ill during this period, the recommendation is to extend the time of voluntary home quarantine for another incubation period, 7 days from the time that the last family member becomes ill.” Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation, Feb. 2007
Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions by Pandemic Severity Category
Even in a mild or moderate pandemic, with very ill children, parents may not wish or may not be able to leave their children, or may be sick themselves and unable to get to the store. Outside help may not be available if an entire community is sick at one time.
For comfort, convenience and peace of mind, it would be a good idea to stock up on the things you would want to get you through a longer time frame than just 2 weeks.
II. Three Months May Be the Length of a Pandemic Wave
Infectious disease hits a community in “waves”. In a community, at first a few people will be sick, and then many. The peak of infection is the time that a community is hit hardest, where there will be the most sick people and fewest resources. There can be several waves during a pandemic.
Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance
Planners at the CDC are planning for at least 12 weeks per wave in a community for a severe pandemic. See Appendix 6, page 86,
Some government planners basing planning on this 12 week period include:
[Discussing school closures] “In addition, planning for dismissal of students from schools and school-based activities and closure of childcare programs, in combination with means to reduce out-of-school social contacts and community mixing for these children, should encompass up to 12 weeks of intervention in the most severe scenarios.” Interim Pre- Pandemic Planning Guidance - CDC
“The population may be directed to remain in their homes under self-quarantine for up to 90 days per wave of the outbreak to support social distancing practices.” Pandemic Influenza: Best Practices and Model Protocols – US Department of Homeland SecurityBecause a wave may last as long as 12 weeks, schools may be closed, and social distancing may be in effect for at least this length of time. By stocking the supplies that you will need during a pandemic, you can reduce your need to go out in public.
- Staying home reduces your chance of becoming infected or bringing the infection home to your family.
- “Sheltering In Place” would eliminate your chance of becoming infected completely.
The more supplies you have at home, the more effectively you can protect yourself and your family during a pandemic.
Part II will be published later today.
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a minor contributor to the Get Pandemic Ready website.
This is an excellent resource, and I highly recommend it.
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