The Role Of Optimism In Pandemic Planning
# 1202
Last week the WHO (World Health Organization) put out what could charitably be called an optimistic forecast for future vaccine production. By 2012, they hope to be able to inoculate the entire population of the planet within 6 months of a pandemic outbreak.
My response was one of unbridled skepticism.
From time to time, a politician, or a local health official will come out and make some vague assurance that their state, or their agency, is `ready for a pandemic'.
Balderdash!
I'm sorry, but there isn't a city, or a state, or a Federal agency that is truly ready for a severe pandemic. I doubt anyone can truly be ready for an event of that magnitude. It's like saying you are ready for a Tsunami.
Running a drill where you prove you can vaccinate 200 people an hour is a worthwhile undertaking, but it must be tempered with the knowledge that it may be 6 months or longer before a vaccine is available. Often officials make it sound as if, by running these drills, we have everything in place to avert a disaster.
We don't.
While a defeatist attitude never solved a problem, I wonder what is served by issuing these irrationally optimistic assessments. It is hard to believe that those making these pronouncements really believe them.
Federal and State officials, on one hand, seem to want individuals to prepare for a pandemic. They urge between 2-weeks and 90-days of food, water, and medicines in every home. Yet the counter message is they have everything under control.
The result is a confused and bewildered citizenry. Most people simply aren't preparing, despite the advice to do so, because they don't believe the threat is genuine. And they believe the government has everything handled.
If the point is to keep the population calm, with their money in the bank and the stock market, and buying on credit for this year's Christmas season, then I suppose these mixed messages are working.
But if the goal is to make our society pandemic aware and prepared, we are going about it the wrong way.
As a child of the 1950's I grew up with Conelrad (This is a test. This is only a test. Had this been a real emergency . . . ), Civil Defense handouts in school, and designated bomb shelters in dozens of locations in my home town.
We learned from Bert the Turtle how to duck and cover, and why we should never look at the flash. As an 8 year old, I knew the different level of shielding needed to protect between Alpha, Beta, and Gamma Rays.
The cold war was, if nothing else, educational.
But no one freaked. People went about their lives even with the specter of atomic incineration in the background. We were informed, and frankly, better prepared in the late 1950s than we appear to be today. We had an operational civil defense, and people were given an unflinching look at the threat.
A far cry from today, where the main concern is apparently not to upset anyone.
While there are voices out there, in the private sector, and in Federal agencies (HHS & CDC come to mind) urging pandemic preparedness, we need national politicians and local officials to become vocal about this issue. So far, the silence from these sectors has been deafening.
We need honesty, not faux optimism.
Believe it or not, the people can handle the truth.
It's lies they can't abide.
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