# 901
With the recent news that there have been genetic `changes' to the virus in Indonesia, fresh warnings have gone out in the media. Australia, over the past week has run a number of articles on the dangers of a pandemic.
Bird flu threat 'very real'
Article from:
TORY SHEPHERD
June 18, 2007 02:15am
HEALTH authorities are urging South Australians to remain alert to the dangers of bird flu after alarming genetic changes in the virus.
Australian and Asian health ministers were warned this month that the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu was mutating unpredictably and at a rapid pace.
Health Department chief medical officer Chris Baggoley said the threat of bird flu hitting SA was real and still present.
"It was always indicated that the virus would need to change genetically for it to pass between people," he said.
"Now there are some genetic changes. We're still not seeing human-to-human shift but we're certainly worried."
Dr Baggoley is working on the state's plan to deal with a pandemic. The plan is constantly updated, but according to current modelling, thousands of people could die in the space of two months if a flu pandemic hit the state. The plan shows about 2600 South Australians could die if the virus was not contained, and warns that hospital admissions would "far exceed" available beds in SA.
There were three pandemics last century. The worldwide epidemics occur when viruses mutate, leaving human immune systems defenceless against them. The bird flu is the strain considered most likely to be the cause of the next pandemic.
Dr Baggoley warned against complacency.
"There can be a sense that the flu was discussed a year or two ago . . . and that it hasn't happened," he said.
"We all need to consider how we would cope in the event of a pandemic."
New guidelines endorsed at the health ministers' meeting in Sydney on June 8 outlined ways to minimise the impact of bird flu on business.
Dr Baggoley said SA also needed to be prepared for workforce shortages if people were struck down by flu symptoms.
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