# 654
This is the kind of official news release that, quite frankly, drives flu watchers nuts.
Bird flu could hit hard
United Arab Emirates:
Bird flu could infect up to 35% of the population in the UAE if it became more easily transmitted between humans, Gulf News reported, citing the World Bank and World Health Organisation. UAE bird flu experts say that the country could expect more than 5,000 deaths from 1.5m infections due to its urban society and high-density population.
Let's pick it apart, shall we?
First, the headline is accurate. Bird flu could hit the UAE hard.
The supposition that 35% could be infected is pure speculation, based on the attack rate of the 1918 pandemic, but it is the general assumption used by most agencies. It may, or may not prove to be correct. But there is no great foul here.
So far, about par for bird flu announcements.
Where it goes astray is the statement that the UAE could expect more than 5,000 deaths from 1.5m infections.
Technically, this too is correct. They could expect more than 5000 deaths. A lot more.
The 1918 pandemic had a CFR (Case Fatality Ratio) of more than 2%. In some countries, it was as high as 8%. Thus far, the H5N1 virus has had a CFR among reported cases of more than 60%.
But even at the 1918 rate, with 1.5 million infections, the UAE could expect 30,000 deaths.
Based on the 5000 deaths projected by the UAE, they must be looking at a repeat of the 1957 Asian Flu scenario as a worst case.
I can only say, I hope they are right, and that the next pandemic fizzles into a mild pandemic.
But I wouldn't care to put any money on that.
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