# 484
Of late, the number of news articles on pandemic influenza have been steadily increasing. It is flu season, and so that isn't terribly surprising. More significant, the wording has changed over the past few months.
We used to hear about a `possible pandemic', or a `potential pandemic', but were told it wasn't inevitable or necessarily imminent.
No longer, it seems. The new talking points appear to be `likely pandemic', and `near-inevitable pandemic'.
Typical of such reporting is this, which appeared today. A report from an Indiana TV station, WFIE.
Health officials say bird flu is coming to U.S.
Feb 20, 2007 06:58 PM
No reported cases of bird flu in this country. But health officials warn, it's coming.
Last summer, local health departments were required to submit plans on how they will handle a possible pandemic. Now, their attention is turning to Hoosier schools and how to keep our children healthy.
When the topic is pandemic, the Indiana Department of Health used teleconferencing to get health officials, first responders and school administrators - along with their counterparts around the state - all on the same page.
The most basic information this group needs to relay to students is the importance of hand washing and covering their mouths when they cough or sneeze. Gerald Summers, EVSC safety & security, says, "Well, that's where it starts at. You've got to start somewhere. Once this thing hits, it's going to spread very fast."
The pandemic of 1918 taught them there's no time to waste. Before it was over, it killed 20 million people worldwide - half a million in the U.S.
The question is, does this really mean anything? Should we be taking this apparent upswing in warnings and change in tone from officials and media sources as an early warning that a pandemic is imminent?
Do officials really have `inside information' that a pandemic is about to start?
I know some flu watchers who think so. They see these media reports, and the change in tone by officials, and believe it's a signal that something is about to happen.
But I'm not so certain.
Of course, it's a given the pandemic could erupt at any time. Tomorrow, next month, or a year from now. Or never. That's still a possibility. The H5N1 virus may never be ready for prime time.
But I'm not convinced that the `government' or scientists have any better idea of whether a pandemic is imminent than you or I. They see signs and portends, and they worry about what they may mean, but I doubt they have a strong sense of any timetable.
We'd all like it if someone, somewhere, had a handle on this. Uncertainty is so damn . . . uncertain.
So while I see the changes in the media reports, and the tone of official statements, I don't believe this means they know something ominous and aren't telling us.
They simply recognize that it is prudent tell people to prepare, because we don't know when it will happen.
I'm not suggesting that we ignore these warnings, or dismiss them in any fashion. I take them seriously, and I think we all should. But I also recognize that government agencies and scientists aren't imbued with the powers of prognostication.
We need to be vigilant, but we also need to recognize we could still be waiting, and watching for a pandemic, a year from now.
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