# 435
Would you, or your company be ready?
I’m not saying it will, mind you. In fact, I’ll give you pretty good odds, it won’t.
But, it might.
We could get word via our newshounds that somewhere in the world; Nigeria, Indonesia, China, Turkey, Egypt . . . Somewhere . . . hospitals were suddenly filling up with unexplained respiratory illnesses.
There would be a period of confusion; likely a period of denial from local officials. There would be delays while testing was conducted. The media might take note of it, but probably wouldn’t jump to any conclusions. And rightfully so: It might be anything.
The first few days, we’d probably see 10 or maybe 20 cases. If the R0 (The Basic Reproductive Number) of the infection were sufficient, in a matter of days, we’d see a doubling of cases. A few days later, a doubling again.
There would be a week, perhaps two, lost waiting to see if this was more than another Karo or Turkish outbreak. Something that would flare up, and then die out. Newshounds would be feverishly watching, along with the CDC and WHO, for any ancillary outbreaks that could be tied to the event. I’d be blogging furiously. But we wouldn’t know if this was `it’.
Not for sure.
Depending on where it occurred, there would be varying attempts to contain the outbreak. In some countries, like South Korea or Japan, very sophisticated and well-coordinated efforts would be undertaken, and some probability of success might exist. In other places, like Nigeria or North Korea, the odds are the outbreak would be well underway before anything substantial was done, or that a problem was even admitted to.
The WHO would probably send in a team, assuming they were granted permission, and Tamiflu stockpiles would be moved into place. We’d be assured that officials were `watching the situation carefully’, and that `efforts to contain the outbreak were in place’.
And for two, maybe three weeks, the world would hold its breath, with perhaps a little panic buying thrown in for good measure. If this turned out to be the real thing, and we were really lucky, we might have a few precious weeks warning.
Of course, it’s always possible we’ll get blindsided, and cases will begin to show up in New York or London within the first week. We might not have those few weeks. There are no guarantees on any of this.
The question is: Would you be ready? Really, ready?
If you haven’t a personal and a business pandemic plan in place, you need to have one. And you need to have one now.
There is a reason why governments, large corporations, and organizations have spent considerable time and money developing theirs. They understand that should a pandemic erupt, chaos will reign, and without a solid plan; serious, perhaps life threatening mistakes will be made.
Having a plan on paper isn’t enough. Anyone can generate a plan. All it takes is a word processor and a printer. Add in some fancy charts and graphs, some general statements about how people are `working to mitigate the effects’, and Voila!
Sadly, I’ve seen too many `plans’ that fall into that category. Long on graphics and vague assurances and short on substance.
To be realistic, the plan must address varying severity levels of a potential pandemic, and address in real terms how you, or your company will deal with them. If your plan is filled with references to committees that are to be formed, or specific guidelines that will be issued in the `near future’, then you don’t have a plan.
You have, at best, fire starter. Conveniently bundled sheets of tinder, readily available when you want to boil a spot of tea.
If you already have a plan, have you reviewed it? Have you checked to see if it is current? Does it take into account the recent admissions by the WHO that the fatality rate doesn’t necessarily have to fall to the 2% level bandied about a year ago? If the attack rate were 60% instead of 30%, would your plan fall apart? What if the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio) were 20% instead of 2%?
There are some who believe a pandemic will be a so devastating that no plan will help. That it will set us back to the 1800’s. While anything is possible, I prefer to believe we can do far better than that.
I believe, with proper preparation and planning, we can offset some of the bad things that would otherwise happen in a pandemic. Not all of them, by any means, but some. And I believe that any victory during a pandemic is an important one.
While there may be no winners in a pandemic, some will lose far less than others. They, and their companies will survive.
And they will likely be the ones who had a good plan, going in.
Do you have a pandemic plan?
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