#213
Watching the developments in the world of Pandemic Influenza is a bit like playing poker. It’s a game of incomplete information. You know what you’ve got in your hand, and by methods of deduction, based primarily on how the other participants bet, you can often guess what the other players are holding.
But you can never be sure you are right until the showdown.
It is both frustrating and intellectually stimulating to watch. Sadly, the so-called `transparency’ promised by various governments around the world borders more on opaqueness. Of course, many of them suffer the same limitations we flu watchers do; they can only see their own hand.
Most of the real news about the H5N1, or Avian Flu, is hidden in China. To give you some idea how difficult it has been to read China’s hand, I submit the following, which was reported by by Zhang Yi of the Asia Times on Nov 14, 2006:
China Denies Existence of 'Fujian-like' Bird Flu Virus
Virologists Guan Yi and Malik Peiris, of the University of Hong Kong, and Rob Webster of St Jude Children's Research Hospital in the United States published a study in the US-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Journal. The report indicated that in the past year, a new strain of bird flu virus, the "Fujian-like virus," has become dominant amongst poultry and has shown up in human infection cases in six Chinese provinces.
At a press conference held by China's Ministry of Agriculture on November 10, Chinese officials criticized Guan's study and claimed that Guan "quoted untrue information," "used unscientific research methods" and "made unsubstantiated speculations."
China's Ministry of Agriculture claimed that there was no new strain of bird flu virus. Although China previously agreed to help epidemiological studies by providing specimens to the World Health Organization (WHO), according to the WHO, since 2004, the Ministry has not provided any specimens of the "Fujian-like" strain of the bird flu virus.
According to Guan, China's Ministry of Agriculture issued orders to stop the study of the new virus in Guangdong Shantou University, and to destroy samples of the virus.
http://tinyurl.com/y4jrab
For two years China has stonewalled the CDC and WHO (World Health Organization) over samples of bird flu strains. Recently, they did give up 20 older samples, but likely `cherry picked’ them carefully. Now there are accusations they are destroying samples.
This is the world we live in. One filled with politics, conflicting agendas, and obvious deception.
It is not surprising then that China has inspired less than glowing reviews from the flu community. Rumors, some of them alarming in nature, have trickled out of the region, but we have no way of confirming them. Many of these stories are carried out by dissidents that have a stake in undermining the Beijing government, and so they must be viewed with a certain amount of skepticism.
But it’s hard not to put at least a little credence in them when China is so obviously covering something. But as to what that is, exactly, we can only speculate.
As frustrating as this is for the flubie community, imagine how difficult it must be for our government. They have to anticipate, and plan for a possible pandemic. We are talking a huge commitment of money, equipment, and manpower. And frankly, they risk political and economic fallout if they react too soon, or in error.
Nobody wants a repeat of the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction intelligence fiasco.
Without clear and concise information as to what is really going on in China, making these decisions can’t be easy.
Last week the US Consulate General’s Office in Hong Kong publicly released an advisory to all Americans living in Hong Kong to immediately stockpile 3 months worth of food and water in anticipation of a potential Avian Flu pandemic. This was a bold move, and one not likely to have pleased Chinese officials. A few days later that advice was retracted. Exactly how and why this chain of events transpired has never been revealed.
But one thing is obvious; people in high places are watching China, and are worried.
Officially, as of August 2006, China had only reported 21 cases of Human H5N1 infection and 14 deaths. They occasionally report outbreaks in birds, but officially things are under control. Of course, officially, they didn’t report their first human case until November of 2005, and now we know they hid a case from 2003.
These numbers, on the surface, seem unlikely. Egypt this year alone has reported 7 deaths from bird flu, and they have a population of roughly 70 million people. Is it reasonable to assume that China, with 18 times that many people and a longer history of bird flu infection, has only twice that many fatalities?
Once again, we cannot know with certainty what is in China’s hand, but it is easy to assume that there are more cases than are being reported.
Not everyone in China is following the party line, however. Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory disease expert based in China's southern Guangdong province, told the Ta Kung Pao newspaper on November 14th, that:
"China and Hong Kong are one family and they may be facing a dangerous co-explosion of the common flu and avian flu in coming days.”
The ominous phrase, in coming days, did not escape the notice of the flu community. Zhong Nanshan, I am told from a long time Hong Kong resident, is well respected in the medical community.
So the flubies, along with our own government, are left guessing as to what is going on in places like China. We have to make assumptions based on the limited data we do have, and proceed from there.
In recent weeks the media, and many people around the world, have forgotten about the threat of a pandemic. There have been relatively few reports of human infections of late.
But just because we aren’t hearing about them, that doesn’t mean they aren’t happening.
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