The debate as to whether a pandemic is imminent continues unabated. In one corner, there are those who believe, if the H5N1 virus were going to go pandemic, it already would have. In the other corner, there are those who believe that it is just a matter of time.
Until it actually happens, or the threat disappears entirely, this debate only serves to delay our dealing with the threat.
Yes, we may get lucky, as we did in 1962 when the world was perilously close to nuclear war over the Cuban Missile crisis. Or, as in years past, when major hurricanes have stalked just offshore of coastal major cities, only to diminish in intensity or head on out to sea. But you can only get lucky so many times, as the residents of New Orleans will attest. At some point, the law of averages catches up with you.
I possess no crystal ball, no clear view of the immediate future, and can no more predict what the H5N1 virus will do than I can pick lotto numbers. What I can do, however, is ascertain the risk/reward ratio, and act accordingly.
A severe pandemic, if one comes, will be every bit as devastating as a nuclear war. Estimates of loss of life range from the laughably low 2 to 7 million bandied about by the PR guys at the CDC, to hundreds of millions, or perhaps billions, as suggested by Dr. Robert Webster and Dmitri Lvov, both preeminent virologists who are studying the virus. While I can hope the PR flacks at the CDC are right, I have a lot more faith in the opinions of working scientists.
We have, of course, two choices here. We can ignore the threat, and hope and pray it goes away, or we can accept the likelihood of a pandemic occurring and try to mitigate its effects.
The danger we face is that the effects of a pandemic are so fearsome many will simply curl up into the fetal position and decide there is nothing they can do. They adopt a fatalistic position, decide that a pandemic is a civilization buster, and that no defense we can mount would make a difference in the outcome.
It is, in many ways, an easier course of action. Do nothing, live for today, and take what comes. And while easier, it almost guarantees things will be worse than they have to be.
By taking personal responsibility, by preparing, and by being willing to help our communities get through a pandemic, we can lessen the effects.
Make no mistake; a pandemic would be a horrible event, unprecedented in recent history. It would bring untold misery to millions. It could bring unexpected and not very pleasant changes in the geopolitical makeup of the world. And it could set civilization back several generations.
But we’ve been through this sort of thing before. And we are still here.
Go back through history, and you will find events like world wars, plagues and pandemics, and the conquering of nations by invading forces, and you will find that people survived, and carried on.
If we are smart and resilient and indefatigable, we shall not go gentle into this good night.
But it will take a resurgence of something we’ve seem to have lost in recent years, a belief that some sacrifices are necessary for the common good. A return to a mindset that goes beyond the `Me’ generation.
In the aftermath of Pearl Harbor, millions of young men lined up at recruiting stations, some as young as 16 years of age, and volunteered to go into harms way. They did so because they believed it was their duty. They believed that the fate of a single individual didn’t amount to a hill of beans when compared to the survival of a nation.
Today, we think of them as `the greatest generation’, simply because they stepped up to the plate.
We are going to need that, once again, should a pandemic strike.
What we do before, during, and after a pandemic will determine how we come out on the other side.
Today, much as in the late 1930’s, there is a looming threat in a faraway land. For many, it seems too far removed from our daily lives to be concerned about. We are separated from it by vast oceans, and believe it isn’t our fight. And we run the real risk of being caught short by a sneak attack, just as we were in 1941.
Most Americans today do not realize how badly we were hurt in the days after Pearl Harbor, how close we came to losing the war in the Pacific before it even began. It took a massive effort, both of military and civilian sectors of our population, to fight back.
If you weren’t around back then, ask someone who was what it was like on the home front. You might be surprised.
Rationing of sugar, gasoline, tires, shoes, and meat. Meatless Tuesdays. War bond drives. Citizens volunteering at hospitals, the USO, and a thousand other venues large and small. Housewives discarding their aprons and donning work clothes for the first time. Rosie the Riveter. Victory gardens. Recycling everything, including bacon grease, for the war effort.
And of course, sending loved ones off to fight, and sometimes die.
A pandemic would be no less grim, and require no less personal sacrifice. But it is survivable. It is quite simply, a war we must win. And the first step towards winning is accepting the threat is real, and preparing for it.
Perhaps we will get lucky, and the threat will go away. But we take a terrible risk by ignoring it.
The costs of losing are simply too high.
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