Monday Morning Roundup

# 179

While the mainstream media continues to virtually ignore Avian Influenza, there is news out there. You just have to look for it.

WHO: Bird Flu Pandemic Risk Still High
http://tinyurl.com/lv4xf
By MARGIE MASON
AP Medical Writer
Last Updated:September 17. 2006 1:40PM
AUCKLAND, New Zealand

The risk of a flu pandemic remains high despite possible public fatigue with the issue, but the World Health Organization is hopeful the bird flu virus will do less damage than in past years during Asia's upcoming colder months, an official said Sunday.

"The virus seems to be very embedded in the environment and, in our view, the risk of a pandemic continues unabated," Richard Nesbit, WHO's acting regional director for the Western Pacific, told reporters prior to a weeklong meeting in Auckland, New Zealand.

. . .

"The scientists are telling us that the risk is just as present as ever. ... We are seeing continuing evolution of these viruses and that's been very well documented now both in humans but as well also in poultry," he said. "After three years now, I'm sure that many journalists and the public are starting to get tired of the same message that there's a potential global pandemic around the corner, but we have a responsibility to continue to give this message."

United Nations joins World Bank warning

September 18th, 2006

During a press conference held in Singapore, David Nabarro, Senior System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza working for the UN, warned of the imminent danger that bird flu poses to world health and economy. He said a world animal and human flu pandemic is only a question of when, not if, and that world governments should take the warning seriously. A recent World Bank estimate concluded that such a severe pandemic could cost the global economy a percentage of 3.1 to 4.8 of the gross domestic product. This would translate in an amount of 1.25 to 2 trillion US dollars. In the last year, the disease has become a global concern, spreading rapidly from its origin in East Asia to countries from South Asia, Middle East, Europe and Africa. It is believed some 200 million birds died or were culled as a direct result. The greatest fear is that a further spread of the virus will eventually cause a mutation that will enable it to be easily passed on from person to person.

http://www.bird-flu-center.com/2006/09/united-nations-joins-world-bank-warning/

These two articles alone show just how concerned world leaders, including the WHO and the UN are about a pandemic. The threat has not diminished. And they are rightfully worried that people, expecting that a pandemic would have arisen by now if it were going to, will fall asleep at the switch. Nature works on it’s own timetable. And always bats last.

What we are learning from the recently released genetic sequences from Indonesia is that the H5N1 virus continues to mutate. And it also seems to have entrenched itself into some other species than birds, as a number of human infection show changes that indicate a third party vector. In other words, these people did not catch the virus from chickens. They caught it from some other animal reservoir, and until we know what animal, any control of the virus will be impossible

Speculation runs from dogs, to cats, to pigs. Some have speculated that bats might be carriers. We simply don’t know yet. If it is pigs, this is particularly worrisome, as pigs routinely catch human strains of influenza, and if a pig were to have the avian strain, and a highly contagious human strain at the same time, the possibility of the two combining into a pandemic strain exists.

Africa, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam all continue to have outbreaks of avian flu in birds and occasionally humans. Each week, it seems, we are finding more people who were misdiagnosed months ago, and discovering they really had avian influenza.

Surveillance is poor in places like Indonesia, and non-existent in Africa. People die, and are quickly buried, and no doctor is every summoned. While the official count of infected and dead moves upward slowly, most officials now admit they really don’t know how many humans have been infected or killed by this virus.

The only good news is that, so far, we haven’t seen a major outbreak of Avian flu. Just small brush fires. Scattered clusters. Inefficient human-to-human (H2H) transmission. This situation could continue to simmer in this fashion for months, even years, or it could explode over night.

Dr. David Nabarro of the UN says we are living on `God Given Time’. He obviously expects to see a pandemic erupt at some point.

As he likes to say, `It’s not if . . . but when.’

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