The question was posed on one of the flu forums today, what would happen if half of all American families suddenly decided to prep for a pandemic?
My answer follows:
I think the answer to your question is pretty obvious. If half, or even 1/3rd of American families started prepping in a serious way (for Sheltering in place for 6 months+) today, we'd see empty store shelves within 48 hours, growing unease, and I suspect the financial markets would take a big hit.
Our Just in Time inventory system simply can't handle that sort of mass stockup buying. Now, if people took several months to buy their supplies, it might be possible. But there would be no way to coordinate that.
Bare market shelves would only exacerbate the problem. We saw this in 1973, when Johnny Carson made a joke about a toilet paper shortage on the Tonight Show. We were suddenly plunged into a `toilet paper' shortage, caused by an innocent comment. Even when he retracted it the next night, people still stockpiled whenever a new shipment arrived, because they had seen the bare shelves.
It would get ugly very quickly, I think.
And in the face of all of this, it is likely that many people would begin removing money from the stock market, or redirect the purchasing of big ticket items, like TV's and Cars, and put their money into preps or savings. This would cause a steep, and immediate, decline in the economy.
I also suspect that those who cannot afford to prep would demand the government do so for them. Cries of the disenfranchised or disadvantaged would be heard on every news broadcast. Politically, economically, and socially, it would become a nightmare.
Had the government's plan to get everyone to prep for 2 weeks last January worked, then they could have bumped it up to a month in April, and maybe 2 months in June, and 3 months in August, it might have been feasible. But the public didn't listen. Part of that was due to the ineptitude of the messenger, no doubt, but it is mostly due to the average american not being willing to believe that they are responsible for their own personal survival.
So, we've frittered away 6 months. Americans are scarcely better prepared today than they were in January. And I see no way for the government to organize an incremental prep mentality in the American Public. We should have started this long ago, before the monster was at our door. But we abandoned our `civil defense' mentality 25 years ago, and decided to throw a party instead.
Sometimes, there are no viable solutions. Sometimes the logistics, and numbers, simply run against you.
It's a cold equation, I know.
For those with one eye open, and a couple of working synapses, the warning signs are there for them to read. Hopefully they will do what they need to do to prepare. But I doubt we will reach a 10% prepared level in this country.
Simply too many folks asleep at the wheel.
Of course, if Panflu breaks out, there will be a mass attempt to prep.
But by then, it will be too late.
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