Readers of this blog, by now, know that I view the odds of a pandemic as being between 30% and 50% over the next 18 months. I also believe, the odds that it will be severe, greater than, or equal to the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, as being about 30%.
Taken together, that puts my estimate of a nightmare scenario at about 10%.
Among avid flu watchers, that makes me a moderate.
There are many who would consider my estimates to be laughably low. So be it. I’ll take my 10% chance of doomsday with a grain of salt. But until we see a mutated virus, spreading rapidly from person to person, and leaving behind a high number of corpses, I’ll hold on to a little optimism.
But given the odds of any sort of pandemic pushing the 50/50 mark, it makes sense to prepare. Even the Federal Government is telling its citizens to be ready. Sadly, they give little guidance as to how much preparation is enough. They are caught between being prudent, and fearing that nothing will happen, and they will be accused of crying wolf.
Each individual must make their own risk assessment of the situation. Some folks are gearing up to ride out a year or longer, with enough food, medicine, and bottled water to enable them to remain isolated in their homes. Others have decided to prepare for a less dramatic event, and the average among those who are prepping seems to be supplies to last 3 to 6 months.
I would never tell someone not to prepare for a year. After all, if they can do it, and the worst case happens, they will be glad they did.
But for most of us, a year’s supply of food and medicine is not an achievable goal. For some, money is an obstacle. For others’ storage and logistics bar that possibility. And few of us can get a years supply of Rx’s ahead.
So what is prudent? What should we think of as a minimum stockpile?
I’m looking at 3 to 4 months. I understand that it may prove to be too little. But there are physical limits to what I can store. If a pandemic appears imminent, I’ll buy up some emergency supplies at the last minute. Rice and beans, if nothing else. But for now, I’m pretty comfortable with a pantry full of canned goods.
I’ve bought food I would eat, anyway. Food with a long shelf life. And I’ve spent only a couple of hundred dollars. If a pandemic doesn’t happen, I’ll consume what I’ve bought, or donate it to a food bank. The couple of hundred dollars is, for me, cheap insurance.
While no one can say for sure if a pandemic is coming, or how bad it will be, there are signs and portends.
Beginning to think this is some kind of global I.Q. test.
Those smart enough to be able to read for comprehension, and who are able to think logically, will prep.
Those lacking in fundamental cognitive skills, will simply believe the pied pipers of passivity, and will not prep.
A damn shame, as the final exam could be a real killer.
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