One of the most preeminent virologists in the world, Dr. Robert Webster aka “The Flu Hunter”, went on national television last night and announced that the odds of H5N1 going to a human pandemic was about even odds.
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/print?id=1724801
Dr. Webster is a heavy hitter in the world of virology. He was the first to identify H5N1 and was responsible for the quick eradication of the first outbreak in Hong Kong 8 years ago. Since then, he has focused a good deal of his attention on this viral threat.
His prediction, that we are basically at a `coin flip’ situation is astounding. While many scientists will cry foul, I believe he sincerely believes in his prediction. He also announced that he has 3 months of food and water stockpiled.
Last October, he made the following statement:
This is the worst flu virus I have ever seen or worked with or read about. We have to prepare as if we were going to war—and the public needs to understand that clearly. This virus is playing its role as a natural bioterrorist. The politicians are going to say Chicken Little is at it again. And, if I’m wrong, then thank God. But if it does happen, and I fully expect that it will, there will be no place for any of us to hide. Not in the United States or in Europe or in a bunker somewhere. The virus is a very promiscuous and efficient killer.
While my personal take on the odds of a pandemic happening are somewhat less dire, I take his announcement seriously. He is in a better position to know than I am.
Right or wrong, this is a wakeup call. We all should be paying attention.
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